US midterm elections: What is at stake for Lebanon?

Report by Petra Abou Haidar, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

U.S. midterm elections: Could their impact extend to Lebanon, particularly on negotiations with Israel and the war with Iran?

The elections could significantly shape Washington's approach to the war with Iran.

Congress is currently controlled by Republicans. If Democrats gain control of both chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate, they could obstruct President Donald Trump’s decisions related to the war, particularly its funding, and increase pressure on his administration to de-escalate.

However, this would not automatically bring the war to an end, as the president retains broad military powers and the authority to veto legislation.

As for Israel, Congress could reduce military aid, impose conditions on assistance, and exercise oversight over arms sales.

Within the Democratic Party, some lawmakers are calling for restrictions on military support for Israel.

However, this position does not enjoy unanimous support, and any legislative changes could also face a veto from Trump.

What about Lebanon?

Regarding negotiations with Israel, a Democratic victory could allow lawmakers to pressure the U.S. administration through funding decisions and oversight. 

Regardless of the election outcome, however, negotiations and Washington’s position on an Israeli withdrawal and security arrangements in southern Lebanon would remain largely in the hands of the White House.

The impact could instead be felt through U.S. support for the Lebanese army.

Since 2006, Washington has provided approximately $3 billion in assistance, including training, equipment, and military aid.

Congress can increase or reduce this assistance and impose conditions on it.

One example is a proposed legislative amendment currently before Congress that would allocate approximately $1.2 billion over five years to support the Lebanese army and security forces, on the condition that weapons be brought under state control and Hezbollah be disarmed.

What would happen to this proposal if Republicans retain control of Congress or lose it to Democrats?

On the Hezbollah front, Congress could introduce new sanctions and tighten oversight of financing networks, while the U.S. administration would be responsible for enforcing those sanctions.

Ultimately, the results of the U.S. elections alone will not determine the future of war and peace in Lebanon and the region. However, they could change the level of pressure on the White House and, consequently, its room for maneuver and its decisions on these issues.