The presidential battle is open on several fronts. Concerning the team supporting the head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Frangieh, the focus is on providing the 65 votes that can lead him to Baabda Palace.
This article was originally published in, and translated from, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.
On the front of Frangieh's opponents, talk has become of an "imminent agreement" on the candidate's name in his face. While France is working on the front of providing a quorum and ensuring that the election session is not disrupted by any party.
Supporters of the head of the Marada Movement deal with the file with "comfort." Those close to him talk about getting close to securing the required 65 votes and that the Saudi announcement of finally lifting the veto on him helps in this task, pointing to continuous contacts away from the limelight with a large number of deputies.
This team seems certain of resolving the quorum problem, based on external understandings, and that the countries of the "five-party meeting" guarantee the presence of all deputies and that no party resorts to obstruction.
It is reported that the ambassadors of the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia deliberately "warned" against disrupting the quorum or obstructing the election process. And deputies attributed to Ambassador Walid Al-Bukhari as saying explicitly: "You must attend any session that Speaker Nabih Berri calls for, and penalties will be imposed on anyone involved in obstructing or disrupting the election process."
On the other hand, the efforts of Frangieh's opponents are continuing to quickly agree on a candidate who will take his name to the election session.
Their sources said that great progress occurred after the Lebanese Forces retracted the first list it submitted, including the names of Michel Moawad, Salah Hanin, and Army Commander Joseph Aoun.
The sources indicated that the mediation led by the head of the Kataeb Party, Samy Gemayel, is based on the Free Patriotic Movement's condition that no candidate be a provocateur to Hezbollah, in addition to the fact that the movement itself does not see in Moawad and the army commander the characteristics it wants in the personality of the presidential candidate.
Accordingly, a new list was submitted that included, in addition to Hanin, the two former ministers, Ziyad Baroud and Jihad Azour.
After rounds of consultations, it became clear to the mediator that Bassil did not support Hanin remaining on the list, as he politically represents a movement on a real clash with Hezbollah.
The Lebanese Forces responded by rejecting Baroud as "opposing them and closer to the movement, and his ministerial experience does not indicate his ability to assume responsibility in the event of major entitlements."
This raised the fortunes of Azour, who at the same time enjoyed the support of the Maronite Patriarchate and the Democratic Gathering bloc headed by Taymour Jumblatt.
Those concerned with the negotiations explained that "the discussion is now limited to names only, while the president's work program will be the focus of the second phase of the meetings between these forces and the candidate who is agreed upon."
In a remarkable position, the Kataeb representative, Elias Hankach, announced in a television interview "that the agreement is imminent with the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement on the name" and that "the name that we will choose must not provoke the other party and push it to disrupt the elections," considering that "the option of disrupting the quorum is still standing."
He pointed out that "the issue of trusting MP Gebran Bassil to wage a battle against Hezbollah is linked to the coming days."
Kataeb sources said, "The problem is not with Frangieh. Rather, we are waging this battle against Hezbollah's approach, which has established the rule of imposing what it wants on the Lebanese. Therefore, the basis of the battle for the Kataeb Party is to drop this approach."
While emphasizing that "we also do not want to impose our candidate is against anyone, neither against Hezbollah nor against anyone else, but rather going to a consensual president among all components who carries a reform program."
The Lebanese Forces gave an initial signal through a tweet to the head of the media, Charles Jabbour, in which he said that the path of negotiation with the Free Patriotic Movement is not complete and asked: "Does MP Bassil dare to directly boycott the opposition over a presidential candidate without returning to his ally, similar to his unfaithful boycott directly with the opposition to overthrow the candidate of his ally?"
The Lebanese Forces sources said, "As far as Maarab is concerned, Bassil is still in the gray field. It is true that we agreed to drop Frangieh, but we are not yet sure that he will stick to nominating a name that Hezbollah does not accept. We are waiting for the next step he will take."
Meanwhile, the date for the next meeting, the "five-party meeting," has not yet been set.
After Saudi Arabia requested that the meeting, which was scheduled for the ninth of this month, be postponed until after the Arab Summit that it will host on the 19th.
Insiders confirmed that the postponement has nothing to do with not reaching a unified position on the presidential file but rather with Riyadh's preoccupation with the arrangements for the summit and securing the presence of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
It pointed out that the results of the summit may have an impact on the Lebanese file.
Although the Qataris sensed real obstacles in the way of the opposition forces' candidacy for the army commander, Doha's efforts in this context have not yet ended.
As it is betting that the opponents of Frangieh will agree on the name of a candidate and that none of the candidates could obtain the required 65 votes, it will make the matter a subject of discussion in the "five-party meeting," and then the Qataris can propose to "dismiss" the candidates and go to a third option, which will be the army commander himself.