Apparently, the settlement is hindered due to a major external conflict and a minor internal one. The first is the strategic rivalry between the United States and its allies and Iran and its allies over influence. The second is the internal power struggle within local forces for power shares over the next six years.
However, at its core, it's also a race for billions. Everyone wants to secure their position in a country that the dormant wealth might save beneath the seabed, if allowed to emerge "safely" from under the water.
A fundamental reason drives the French mediator, Jean-Yves Le Drian, to stick to his initiative and call for a dialogue among political forces in September. It's about creating a suitable atmosphere for the company "TotalEnergies EP" to launch the gas exploration process in Bloc 9. This presents a promising investment opportunity for the French company, following an unsuccessful experience in Bloc 4 in early 2020.
After waiting for almost ten months following the signing of the border demarcation agreement with Israel, the company started its field operations on the site. It is expected to be able to provide its report on the exploration results by November.
According to several studies, experts estimate that there is wealth in Bloc 9 ranging in value from $100 billion to $300 billion, which will be distributed among the companies involved in the extraction, including "TotalEnergies EP," the Italian "Eni," the Qatari "Qatar Petroleum," and the Lebanese government.
Suppose the estimations are correct and the exploration process goes smoothly. In that case, the Lebanese state will gain tens of billions of dollars from Bloc 9 alone when gas extraction and sales commence. This is estimated to occur over seven years if the project progresses at maximum speed. Meanwhile, other blocs might also be put under-investment.
The Lebanese authorities will immediately benefit from the gas funds. If "TotalEnergies" publishes a report before the end of this year revealing commercially viable quantities of gas, the authorities can start negotiating with creditors and the international community on this basis.
The political composition that will assume power in the coming years will be significantly strengthened by possessing billions easily obtained from the seabed, allowing them to cover up decades of mismanagement that led the country to catastrophe.
The existing power structure, which has evaded any reform and hides scandalous files fearing exposure and accountability, will be in a stronger position. The authority will maintain an iron grip and reject any external call for reform, while internal opposition, accountability bodies, or the judiciary won't be able to stand in its way. The models are well-known globally, where corrupt systems become dictatorships once they have the money.
Thus, if completed, the gas extraction process will lead to an economic breakthrough. Still, it will also justify further authoritarian practices. This will become clear soon, during this year, once "TotalEnergies EP" presents its promising report.
The current ruling powers are interested in announcing the existence of gas as soon as possible, as this urgency aligns their interests with France.
Both parties benefit from engaging everyone in a dialogue that fills the void and provides political cover for the gas exploration workshop. Le Drian is likely well aware of the difficulty of achieving any settlement in September. Still, he believes that filling time with political efforts will preserve France's role in the mediation and allow its company to launch the gas investment workshop.
However, is the road to gas extraction and billions paved with roses? Is the haste of France and the local authorities enough to ensure success?
To recap, gas and oil exploration in Lebanese waters dates back decades. In this regard, Lebanon is lagging behind Israel by several years. This is due to internal disruptions, conflicts, and external pressures, especially from the United States. When the demarcation agreement was signed between Lebanon and Israel, mediated by the US, in October last year, the Israelis immediately initiated their extraction workshop.
However, Lebanon had to wait another year to determine whether it had commercially viable quantities to invest in and then wait for years for the extraction if the exploration report was positive.
With exploration and extraction, the ruling powers want to take advantage of this historical opportunity that grants them control over the country's finances and influence for years to come.
Conversely, the opposition is attempting to secure a minimum position and role, albeit in vain. In between, the "Free Patriotic Movement" maneuvers to gain the most out of this game.
However, all this complexity remains in flux unless the United States speaks up. On the international-regional scale, a decision in the strategic energy field can only be made with their consent. Will they agree to hand Lebanon over to Iran's allies, who possess total political, military, and financial influence and will dominate the Eastern Mediterranean energy resources for years to come? And at what price, if they do accept that?
At this point, the file of gas and oil in Lebanon stops. The Americans, who have not granted Lebanon the green light to obtain electricity from Jordan and gas from Egypt, seemingly impose sanctions on it. Will they decide to lift these sanctions and allow Lebanon to utilize its resources fully? Will this enable Lebanon to withstand any demand and face any pressure?
What can be said now is that the drilling rig has arrived and will begin its work in a few days. This is confirmed. The rest requires waiting and anticipation, step by step.