Demographic challenge: Can Lebanon handle the influx of Syrian refugees amid economic crisis?

In a scene becoming all too familiar, Syrians line up at bakeries searching for subsidized bread, often paying exorbitant prices for extra loaves if available.

Securing more than the allotted gas cylinder is almost impossible due to scarcity or because its price can equal a month's salary for an employee, ranging from $25 to $50.

The economic turmoil, the collapse of the Syrian currency, the repercussions of the Caesar Act, eight years of compulsory military service, and a lack of employment opportunities are compelling Syrians to contemplate leaving their country.

For many, Lebanon seems to be the most accessible destination despite border control measures. While the military returns some, thousands of Syrians enter Lebanon each month, often facilitated by networks of Syrian-Lebanese smugglers who charge hefty fees.

However, can a country like Lebanon, already grappling with economic collapse, bear the demographic consequences of this influx?

According to a study by researcher Mohammad Chamseddine, if this pace of migration, coupled with Syrian births, continues, by 2076, the number of Syrians in Lebanon could parallel the number of Lebanese.

The government aims to address this issue in an upcoming cabinet meeting attended by the army commander and heads of security agencies. The session will involve critical discussions and decisions, as the matter is a security and political concern.

Social Affairs Minister Hector Hajjar is hesitant about participating in the session, as he has boycotted government meetings in the absence of a president. He believes the government's measures are inadequate to confront the impending danger. He affirmed to LBCI that he awaits communication and more effective solutions.

Nonetheless, the government must take swift action. 

The Displaced Minister, Issam Sharafeddine, acknowledged that there have been no severe government initiatives to return Syrian refugees. While he recognizes the importance of security leaders attending the session, he emphasizes that the ultimate solution lies in dialogue with Syria.

Some observers believe Syria seeks an official visit from Prime Minister Najib Mikati to Damascus, a step Mikati is unlikely to take due to Western restraints.

On Monday, the refugee file will undergo comprehensive scrutiny from all angles, according to governmental sources. They expect to formulate executable decisions, recognizing that the recent surge of Syrian refugees poses a catastrophic threat to Lebanon's already delicate societal balance.