Security calculations: Australia incident pushes Lebanon and Syria down Israel's agenda

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

An attack on a Jewish Hanukkah celebration in Australia has reshuffled the priorities of Israel's political and security leadership, pushing the Lebanon and Syria files into the background as attention shifted to the implications of the assault.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who requested that a court session in his ongoing trial be postponed on Monday due to anticipated talks with U.S. envoy Tom Barrack covering Lebanon and Syria, said every Jew is now a victim of the spread of antisemitism. 

Meanwhile, Israeli security and military officials sought to link the attack in Sydney's Bondi area to Iran or Hezbollah, portraying it as possible retaliation for the killing of senior Hezbollah figure Haytham Tabtabai.

Before the attack in Australia, Israeli security services had assessed that an earlier incident in Yanouh was a diversion, while the political leadership, which had already decided against carrying out a military strike, chose to avoid friction with Washington. The United States has been pressing Tel Aviv to exercise restraint on the Lebanese front.

According to an Israeli report, intelligence agencies claimed to have obtained indications of coordination between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah. Despite this, Israel decided to give the Lebanese Army time to address the issue of Hezbollah's weapons, while conveying to Beirut through Washington its rejection of any continued cooperation between the army and the group.

At the same time, Israeli security officials have expressed concern over what they describe as growing flexibility within the U.S. administration, which is seeking to advance negotiations on the demarcation of the land border with Lebanon. 

That flexibility, they fear, could lead to a settlement that replaces the demand for Hezbollah’s disarmament with a commitment not to use its weapons, along with the establishment of a demilitarized zone between the Litani River and the Israeli border.