US pressure and promises: What is driving Netanyahu's ceasefire push with Lebanon?

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Amid intense battlefield clashes and widespread protests, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is moving forward with signing a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon within the next 24 hours. 

This decision comes despite opposition from 55% of Israelis, including 88% of supporters from his own coalition.  

So, what prompted Netanyahu to push for the deal, days after U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein left Israel without reaching an agreement? 
 
The primary motivation behind Netanyahu's decision to proceed with the agreement stems from recent actions by the United States, which included both threats and incentives. These came to light before a security meeting on Sunday evening, where Netanyahu chose to advance toward approval of the agreement.

Hochstein reportedly threatened to withdraw U.S. mediation efforts if a deal was not reached within days. 

Additionally, Washington hinted at supporting a U.N. Security Council resolution imposing a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which the U.S. would refrain from vetoing.  

On the incentive side, the U.S. offered Israel several guarantees tied to the agreement, including:  

- A guarantee from Washington, through a set of assurances attached to the agreement, that Israel would retain the freedom to act militarily in Lebanon if the monitoring committee fails to address any Israeli complaints. This would allow the Israeli military to respond immediately if it faces direct attacks. 

- A promise from U.S. President Joe Biden to lift previous U.S. restrictions on arms sales to Israel, ensuring that weapons would be delivered to Israel as soon as the agreement is signed. 

- A commitment to reduce pressure on Israel regarding its policy in Gaza and its war against Hamas.

In addition to these American assurances, Netanyahu's decision to move forward with the agreement was also influenced by a message from the U.S. confirming that France's role in the agreement's monitoring committee was essential. Lebanon also strongly supported France's involvement.  

The U.S. made it clear that there would be no deal without French participation, easing tensions after a conversation between Netanyahu and French President Emmanuel Macron. 

During the call, Macron reportedly reassured Netanyahu that while France remains committed to international legal rulings, including one by the French judge in the International Criminal Court (ICC) accusing Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant of war crimes, he would invoke diplomatic immunity to ensure Netanyahu's access to France.  

However, Netanyahu's biggest political gain from the deal is the separation of the Lebanese front from Gaza.

With U.S. guarantees in place, Netanyahu can intensify operations in Gaza, including plans to re-establish military dominance and expand settlement projects there, spearheaded by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.  

The proposed deal has garnered broad support from the Israeli coalition government and its supporters, providing Netanyahu with both a political victory and a means of securing his position in office. 

Additionally, the agreement could help improve his standing in ongoing legal challenges and secure his continuation in government at home and in relation to the current U.S. administration.