Lebanon's 2026 elections: Debate over electoral law sparks political tensions

Report by Nada Andraos, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi 

With Lebanon's 2026 parliamentary elections approaching, political debate is intensifying over which electoral law will govern the vote. 

The key question is whether elections will be held under the current proportional representation system with amendments or under an entirely new law, such as the "single electoral district" proposal by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.  

Under the existing proportional representation law, Christian representation has improved significantly. In the 2009 elections, held under the majoritarian "1960 law," only 24 Christian MPs were elected primarily by Christian voters. 

However, the 2018 elections, conducted under proportional representation, saw 53 Christian MPs elected by Christian votes. This level of representation was maintained in the 2022 elections, with 53 out of 64 Christian MPs winning their seats through Christian votes.  

The proposed "Lebanon as a single electoral district" system raises concerns among major Christian parties and independent Christian MPs, who argue that it would significantly diminish Christian political influence.  

In this system, candidates would run on closed lists comprising all 128 parliamentary seats, meaning that voters would not cast their ballots for candidates within their specific district but rather for an entire nationwide list. 

Seats would then be distributed proportionally based on the percentage of votes each list receives. For instance, a list that secures 30% of the nationwide vote would be awarded 30% of the seats in parliament.  

Christian political factions fear that this mechanism could allow Muslim-majority voter blocs to determine the outcome of Christian representation. 

If Christian candidates are included on a list primarily backed by Muslim voters, and that list wins a significant percentage of the national vote, Christian MPs could be elected with a majority of Muslim votes. They argue that this would undermine Christian self-representation and shift the balance of power in parliament.  

Currently, the electoral landscape is dominated by the Shiite political duo of Hezbollah and Amal, which collectively formed the largest voting bloc in the 2022 elections. 

In that election, the Shiite electorate accounted for approximately 542,000 voters out of the 1.95 million total ballots cast across Lebanon. In contrast, Christian votes were more fragmented across various parties and independent candidates.  

However, if the Future Movement fails to return to the electoral arena to consolidate Sunni votes, the Amal-Hezbollah duo, known to be running in the elections as united, is expected to control the identity of the 2026 Parliament, particularly if elections are held under the single-district system. 

If adopted, this law could enable the alliance to determine the composition of the next parliament, shifting Lebanon back to a system where a single dominant bloc holds decisive control.