Power balance at risk: Could sectarian parity collapse in Beirut's municipal elections?

Report by Maroun Nassif, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi  

Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri's decision to withdraw the Future Movement from Lebanon's upcoming municipal and mukhtar elections has sparked fears over the delicate sectarian balance in the Beirut municipality. 

Hariri, who announced Wednesday that his party would not participate, cited his conviction that municipal elections should remain developmental and non-political. 

However, his decision has intensified anxieties about the preservation of parity between Muslims and Christians in the capital's municipal body.

The primary concern stems from demographic realities: Muslim—particularly Sunni—voters significantly outnumber Christian voters in Beirut. Without a unified political list or consensus among major political forces, Christian candidates could lose all 12 council seats allocated to them under the majoritarian voting system.

Second, during the leadership of the late Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, the Future Movement historically played a key role in maintaining sectarian balance in the capital, leveraging its large Sunni voting base to support Christian candidates. Under Saad Hariri, the party is no longer in the race, and no single Sunni-led political force appears capable of replicating that influence.

Currently, Beirut's Sunni vote is fractured across at least three emerging electoral lists. One reportedly brings MP Fouad Makhzoumi, the Lebanese Forces, Al-Ahbash, and the Amal Movement together. 

Another is being formed by Change MPs Ibrahim Mneimneh, Paula Yacoubian, and Melhem Khalaf, in partnership with Beirut Madinati and other civil society groups. A third list is reportedly being shaped by MP Nabil Badr.

Based on the 2022 parliamentary elections, around 138,000 voters participated in Beirut II—predominantly Sunni and Shia—compared to roughly 42,000 in the predominantly Christian Beirut I. 
 
These figures underline the imbalance and the potential impact of vote fragmentation, raising fears of the inability to secure a complete 24-seat list equally divided between Christians and Muslims without a broad political consensus. 

The growing concerns have led to speculation that the elections might be postponed altogether, possibly at the last minute, to avoid the collapse of Beirut's sectarian parity for the first time.