From Gaza to Tehran: how far will Israel go—and will Iran hold?

Report by Nada Andraos, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Since Oct. 7, 2023, the Middle East has remained on edge, rocked by ongoing political and military upheaval.

Hamas carried out Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, considered one of the most significant operations in the history of resistance against Israeli occupation.

But despite the losses it suffered, Israel used the operation to launch multi-front wars under the banner of dismantling the "Axis of Resistance" from its arms to the head: Iran.

The dismantling began in Gaza. Israel attacked the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, destroyed a large portion of their military infrastructure, and consequently weakened deterrence along its southern flank.

From Gaza to Lebanon, where a fierce war has been waged against Hezbollah months after it opened a "support front." 

Israel assassinated two Hezbollah secretaries-general, eliminated top military leaders, disabled thousands of members and cadres through the "pager operation," and has continued to operate in the Lebanese arena despite the ceasefire agreement.

In Yemen, Iran's "third proxy," Israel has responded to Houthi attacks in close coordination with the United States through strikes targeting the strongholds and facilities of the Ansar Allah movement.

After targeting Iran's regional proxies, Israel — backed by the United States — shifted its focus to Tehran, launching an open war at dawn on June 13 aimed, it says, at eliminating Iran's nuclear program and missile arsenal.

While it is true that during the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel launched two strikes against Iran — to which Tehran responded within the framework of regional deterrence — the events of last Friday marked a shift to direct conflict. 

Given the escalating pace, Israel appears determined to dismantle what remains of deterrence and rules of engagement, aiming to cripple Iran's internal capabilities on the one hand and its ability to wage proxy wars on the other.

As Israel has explicitly stated that its ultimate objective is the elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to bring down the regime, a crucial question arises: Would assassinating the supreme leader truly lead to the collapse of the regime?

Will the head of the regime pursue the confrontation to the end, as Hezbollah did in Lebanon — paying the price with the loss of its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah? Or will Khamenei choose to "drink the poisoned chalice" to preserve the Islamic Republic of Iran, just as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did in 1988 when he agreed to a ceasefire with Iraq?