Countdown to confrontation: Lebanon's Cabinet braces for disarmament showdown

Report by Lara El Hachem, English adaptation by Mariella Succar

The Lebanese government is handling the issue of exclusive state arms with unprecedented seriousness.

In less than 24 hours, the Cabinet Secretariat called for a session on Thursday at Baabda Palace to continue discussions on this topic. The agenda item states: “Continuing the discussion on implementing the government’s ministerial statement regarding extending state sovereignty over all its territories through its own forces, and arrangements for halting hostile actions.”

On Tuesday evening, the Cabinet tasked the Lebanese Army with developing a practical plan to consolidate arms under state control and present it by the end of the month, with implementation set for the end of the year.

However, the Tuesday decision prompted the withdrawal of two ministers close to the Amal-Hezbollah duo—Rakan Nassereddine and Tamara el-Zein—citing prior communications that did not indicate a timeline for disarmament would be set. Minister Fadi Makki expressed reservations about setting a timetable but did not withdraw, maintaining his insistence on prioritizing Israeli withdrawal.

How will Thursday’s session unfold as the government moves toward approving Tom Barrack’s new proposal, which Hezbollah views as more Israeli than American?

As of this report, all scenarios remain possible, according to Amal-Hezbollah sources. The ministers close to the bloc may choose to boycott the session without withdrawing from the government, protesting the new proposal for failing to consider Lebanese concerns. Meanwhile, government sources affiliated with the Lebanese Forces say Tuesday’s debate focused on “the objectives of approving the proposal,” not its technical details, and that the president and prime minister emphasized that the discussion centers on Barrack’s revised proposal, which includes Lebanese amendments.

Another possibility is a split within the bloc between attending and abstaining members. In this context, Minister el-Zein confirmed to LBCI that she intends to participate in the session.

Regardless of the bloc’s decision, Minister Makki will attend independently while maintaining his reservations, which would preserve the quorum.

Ultimately, Hezbollah considers setting a timetable that does not require Israeli withdrawal as a gift to Israel. In an official statement, the group said the government committed a grave mistake by stripping Lebanon of the resistance’s arms and complying with the U.S. envoy’s demands. 

Hezbollah will therefore treat the government’s decision as non-existent but will maintain its commitment to dialogue and discussions on national security strategy—just not amid aggression.

Conversely, other circles believe Lebanon can no longer afford to remain stagnant. Among them is the leader of the Dignity Movement, Faisal Karami, who told a Hezbollah delegation that the current priorities are protecting Lebanon, preserving civil peace, engaging in serious dialogue with the state, conceding to the army’s authority, and maintaining strong relations with Saudi Arabia.