US pressure and regional tensions: Israel and Syria near landmark security agreement

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Less than 24 hours after dismissing the prospect of progress in talks with Syria, Israel announced that the two sides have reached understandings on roughly 95% of a sweeping security deal.

According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the agreement, which remains outside the framework of the Abraham Accords, reportedly includes a series of side arrangements and could pave the way for a follow-up accord. 

Sources said the deal is nearly finalized and only requires final touches after Israel secured key demands, including maintaining its presence atop Mount Hermon, establishing a buffer zone, preventing Turkish involvement in training Syrian forces, and removing strategic weaponry—such as air defenses and missiles—from Syrian territory.

U.S. officials have reportedly increased pressure on both Tel Aviv and Damascus to finalize the accord. 

Remaining obstacles, particularly regarding the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon, were resolved by deferring those issues for future negotiations in exchange for Syria's commitments to prevent attacks against Israel from its soil, curb Iranian influence and proxies, and ensure political participation for minority groups within a unified Syria, according to Israeli sources.

Carmit Valensi, an analyst on Iranian affairs, said both parties have strong incentives to reach a deal regardless of U.S. pressure. She argued that Syria's acceptance would amount to Israeli recognition of the Damascus government, bolster the position of Ahmed al-Sharaa, and reinforce Syria's image as a sovereign state.

While urging Israeli decision-makers not to miss what she called a "rare opportunity," Valensi warned that Tel Aviv must remain cautious and prepared for unforeseen developments given Syria's fragile situation.

If successful, analysts say the agreement would mark a major diplomatic breakthrough for Israel, translating military gains into long-term arrangements that could secure quiet borders, weaken Iranian influence, enhance Israel's regional and global standing, and contribute to broader Middle East stability.