Amid instability on the Lebanese front, could Israel face a new clash?

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Unlike previous speeches by Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, Israel saw his address commemorating Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination as a sign of instability along the Lebanese front.

As the Israeli army reinforced its troops under the banner of “ensuring border security,” military officials recommended continuing airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah from strengthening its capabilities and to maintain control over the five positions seized by Israeli forces.

According to Israeli assessments, Hezbollah—despite damage to its military and organizational structure—still keeps the option of attacking Israel on the table, particularly if domestic tensions escalate over decisions to disarm the group.

Military sources said Hezbollah faces three main challenges: handling decisions of the Lebanese government and managing fronts with both Syria and Israel. 

Based on these assessments, and with Israel determined not to withdraw from Lebanon while continuing its attacks, preparations are underway for possible large-scale confrontations.

On the first anniversary of Nasrallah’s assassination, Israeli media outlets competed to publish new details about the operation, reporting that human intelligence played a key role in its success and describing it as a strike that shifted the balance of power across the region.

On the ground, Israeli drone activity over Lebanon has been constant, while the sound of near-daily strikes echoes into northern towns, where most residents remain displaced as they await developments on the northern front.