Anxiety over next conflict: Israel weighs Lebanon strike amid rising tensions

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Hezbollah’s “silence” and its lack of response to recent Israeli attacks, along with the relative quiet on the Lebanese side, have become a major source of concern for Israel’s security agencies.

They believe the group is following what they describe as a containment policy — refraining from responding to Israeli strikes and avoiding moves that could drag Lebanon into escalation, while choosing instead, they say, to prepare and rebuild its military capabilities out of sight.

The concern also reflects Israel’s uncertainty over when to decide on launching a new round of fighting.

After security and military officials warned that a confrontation was approaching and predicted it could last several days, an Israeli security assessment said a new war with Lebanon was unlikely before early next year. 

The assessment cited not only the need to allow time for diplomacy, but also the need for Israel to prepare for Hezbollah’s missile arsenal and to ready the home front.

Estimates indicate Hezbollah has a large stockpile of missiles, in addition to drones, which could expose Israel to dozens of rockets a day in short intervals, according to an Israeli report.

As part of Israel’s preparations for a possible confrontation, and with U.S. support, Tel Aviv submitted a report to Washington detailing what the Lebanese army has carried out under the ceasefire agreement, disputing the Lebanese army’s own reports on the matter.

Amid the various scenarios, several security officials and military analysts say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is moving toward an attack on Lebanon to serve his personal interests.

If he succeeds in passing a law exempting ultra-Orthodox Israelis from military service, they argue, he would need to maintain a continuous security agenda ahead of elections — portraying himself as defending the nation. After claiming victories over Iran and Hamas, they say, he would seek to “finish the job” in Beirut, according to a military analyst.