Deadly strike in Palestinian camp escalates Israel-Lebanon tensions — is a new conflict looming?

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

With its large-scale raid on the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, Israel has escalated its threats against Lebanon, citing the targeting of Hamas members allegedly training and preparing to attack Israel.

The attack has sparked internal debate over its potential repercussions. The operation reportedly killed 13 Hamas members, according to Lebanese sources, while Israel claims 21 fatalities.

Military intelligence and the army said they had been monitoring Hamas activity in the camp for months and took advantage of a gathering of members to carry out the strike. The Israeli army claimed the attack targeted a military complex used for organizing and training operations against Israel and its forces.

The security establishment viewed the raid as a message to the Lebanese state, holding it responsible for any armed group activity on its territory and threatening to expand strikes if such activity continues.

These developments come amid rising discussion that a new round of fighting in Lebanon is closer than ever. A military official said the army is nearing the execution of a limited offensive against Hezbollah.

This would include airstrikes on weapons production facilities across Lebanon, particularly in the Bekaa Valley and Beirut. The official said these sites are hidden underground or within residential areas and have relatively modest capabilities to convert heavy, unguided rockets into precision missiles by modifying their warheads. 

According to estimates, Hezbollah still possesses tens of thousands of such rockets and several thousand precision missiles, in addition to the capability to produce thousands of drones and explosive-laden unmanned vehicles.

The developments on the Lebanese front come as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and senior security officials visited southern Syria to assess the security situation firsthand.

The visit followed late-night army exercises on Mount Hermon involving a commando unit simulating border infiltrations or an attack on a northern settlement, in a scenario reminiscent of the October 7 attacks.