In the details: How did Israel kill Hezbollah’s No. 2 — and what does it mean for the group and Lebanon?

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Haytham Tabtabai was not a secondary figure within Hezbollah; he was the chief of staff and the No. 2 in the group’s military command. He knew he was a certain target for Israel, and, according to security sources, he was expected to have surrounded himself with strict security measures based on lessons learned from the assassinations of party leaders, most notably Hassan Nasrallah.

All of that collapsed on Sunday, when the Israeli air force struck Tabtabai with six missiles while he was in a military meeting with four Hezbollah members in an exposed, high-floor apartment in Haret Hreik in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

So how was Tabtabai targeted?

Security sources told LBCI that Tabtabai entered the residential building and settled into the apartment, and that Tel Aviv likely confirmed his identity and determined he would remain there for some time. That allowed Israel to carry out the strike within roughly an hour.

As for how Tabtabai was tracked, several scenarios are being considered:

First, that he was monitored through technical surveillance and on-the-ground operatives, possibly including individuals close to him. Second, that Mossad infiltrated or monitored someone who was with him in Haret Hreik, obtaining the intelligence needed to conduct the operation.

The details of the operation may become clearer in the coming days or months, but there is no doubt that the assassination occurred at a highly sensitive moment for Hezbollah and the Shiite community.

Meanwhile, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has been seeking ways to spare the community further losses amid Israel’s escalatory posture and Hezbollah’s firm stance.

Sources say the discussions Berri and his political aide, Ali Hassan Khalil, held with Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, were in this context.

Ali Hassan Khalil conveyed to Iranian officials Berri’s desire to take steps that would help the Shiite community move beyond the current situation — not as a denunciation of Hezbollah, but by proposing the idea of Saudi-Iranian cooperation.

Officials in Ain al-Tineh are keeping Iran’s response confidential.

But sources say Larijani, while insisting Iran would not intervene, noted that Lebanon is moving too quickly in its positions regarding negotiations with Israel, while actual negotiations have not yet begun.

Between Iran’s advice — effectively messages to Hezbollah and the Lebanese state — and Israel’s strikes and threats of a return to full-scale war, Hezbollah and all of Lebanon appear to be in a serious predicament.

Resolving it requires Hezbollah first acknowledging the scale of the military and technical disaster it faces, and issuing a decision that protects its own community and allows all Lebanese to begin emerging from a war Israel seeks — and one President Joseph Aoun is trying to avert through the initiative he launched, before it too becomes a target.