Gas routes and regional rivalries shape Lebanon's energy future—The details

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Talk has long centered on Lebanon's potential to become a future producer and exporter of natural gas, but the debate is no longer limited to whether gas exists or can be extracted. 

The more pressing question is the fate of any future production and whether it would remain a limited domestic resource or evolve into a strategic asset capable of transforming Lebanon's economy.

At the heart of the discussion are supply routes, which have historically been the subject of competition, conflict, and competing proposals. One option under consideration is Lebanon's possible accession to the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, a regional framework that brings together countries of the eastern Mediterranean to enhance cooperation on natural gas production, regulation, and marketing.

The forum includes several key players, notably Greece, Israel, and Cyprus, whose relationship is rooted in long-standing strategic and economic interests. 

Economically, the three countries coordinate plans to transport gas from Israel through Cyprus and onward to Europe via Greece. Their cooperation extends beyond energy corridors into technology and investment, with a growing number of Israeli companies expanding or investing in both Cyprus and Greece.

Such projects depend heavily on security and stability, an objective pursued by the three countries through intensified joint military exercises and intelligence and security cooperation. These efforts are aimed at safeguarding electricity and gas networks, protecting ports and communications infrastructure, enhancing maritime surveillance, and, critically, securing offshore gas fields and installations.

Beyond shared economic interests, a broader regional dimension binds the three states, centered on tensions with Turkey. Greece, Israel, and Cyprus have differences with Ankara on several issues, and their alignment has implications for Turkey, which is itself a key transit route for gas supplies to Europe. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has alluded to these tensions without explicitly naming Turkey.

A historical narrative also plays a role in the partnership, with Netanyahu portraying the three countries as ancient states with deep historical roots, a framing that reinforces their political alignment.

For now, Lebanon remains on the sidelines, observing the evolving regional energy landscape as it weighs its options. Multiple choices lie ahead, each carrying its own political and economic costs and calculations, as Beirut considers how best to position itself in the race for eastern Mediterranean gas.