Last-minute diplomacy averted attack on Beirut, but not the war

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

A flurry of diplomatic contacts involving the United States, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran helped prevent an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on Monday, though the broader conflict between Israel and Hezbollah remains unresolved.

The chain of events began on Friday, May 29, when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and proposed a formula aimed at de-escalation. Under the proposal, Hezbollah would halt attacks on Israeli settlements, while Israel would refrain from striking Beirut's southern suburbs. The initiative was later envisioned as a pathway toward a broader ceasefire covering all of Lebanon.

Aoun received the proposal and dispatched his adviser, Didi Rahal, to discuss it with Hezbollah. The party's response was conveyed on Sunday through Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who told NBN that he could guarantee the resistance's "full, comprehensive and immediate commitment" to a ceasefire, while questioning who would guarantee that Israel would halt its military operations by land, sea and air, as well as the demolition of villages and homes.

However, U.S. officials viewed the response as evasive and disappointing. As pressure mounted, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a joint statement ordering strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs amid continued escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.

Regional actors then intensified efforts to prevent further escalation. Qatar entered mediation efforts through Berri, while his political aide, Ali Hassan Khalil, traveled to Doha. Saudi Arabia also became actively involved, with its envoy to Lebanon, Yazid bin Farhan, maintaining continuous contact with Lebanon's senior leadership in an effort to avert a wider confrontation.

Meanwhile, Iran threatened to suspend negotiations with Washington and resume attacks against Israel if Beirut came under attack.

As residents of Beirut's southern suburbs began leaving the area amid fears of imminent strikes, Berri's adviser Ali Hamdan contacted U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa seeking clarification regarding the Israeli warning. According to sources, the response was negative and firm.

Efforts nevertheless continued. Hamdan sought to relay messages to Israel and provided information to Axios journalist Barak Ravid, indicating that Berri maintained communication channels with Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem and could guarantee adherence to a comprehensive ceasefire. Berri also conveyed the same message through Lebanon's ambassador to Washington, Nada Hamadeh Moawad.

In parallel, Berri told The New York Times that developments in Lebanon could unfold independently of any U.S.-Iran agreement and argued that only U.S. President Donald Trump could impose a genuine ceasefire.

Following the intensive diplomatic efforts, Trump reportedly spoke with Netanyahu. Shortly afterward, he announced that an understanding had been reached under which Beirut would not be targeted in exchange for Hezbollah refraining from attacks on Israeli settlements. Trump added: "Let's see how long that lasts, and hopefully forever."

Trump also contacted Lebanon's ambassador in Washington and informed her that Netanyahu had agreed to the proposed arrangement. The ambassador subsequently relayed the message to Aoun, who in turn informed Hezbollah of the developments.

Despite the apparent success in preventing a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanese officials caution against interpreting the development as the end of the conflict. 

While Sunday's and Monday's diplomatic contacts may have averted an immediate escalation in the capital, fighting continues elsewhere, particularly in South Lebanon, underscoring the fragility of the current situation and the absence of a comprehensive ceasefire.