Why have Iranian oil exports tripled in the past three years?

Despite all the US sanctions imposed on the Iranian oil sector, this oil is flooding the black markets.

Iranian exports have increased approximately threefold over the past three years, from less than 500,000 barrels per day in 2020 to about 1.5 million per day in recent months.

More than 90% of these exports go to China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, and the rest to Syria (7%) and Venezuela (2%).

How is this trade evading US sanctions?

The answer has two facets: technical and political.

Technically, transportation occurs through a vast and complex network of intermediaries and small companies that are difficult to trace.

Furthermore, this network utilizes what is known as the "black fleet," referring to ships that turn off all communication devices when loading oil and often engage in ship-to-ship transfers in the middle of the sea.

In terms of payment, transactions are conducted in the Chinese currency rather than the US dollar, which is closely monitored. This is the technical aspect.

Politically, the question arises: Is there a tacit approval from the Biden administration for the transport of Iranian oil, primarily since this administration seeks to improve relations with Tehran? This is emphasized by their decision to release $6 billion of Iran's frozen funds in South Korea in exchange for a prisoner swap in September last year.

At a time when it seems that nothing can stop the trade of Iranian oil in the black market, some US lawmakers are attempting to pass additional legislation aiming to tighten measures on ports importing this oil.

Thus, will these lawmakers successfully issue new sanctions that further strain the possibility of understanding between the current Biden administration and Tehran, especially about a year away from the US presidential elections?