As Israel contemplates Iran strike, US shifts in nuclear policy could alter regional balance

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Israel may include Iranian nuclear facilities in any plans for a preemptive attack on Iran.

The current Democratic administration opposes targeting these facilities and prevented such action in Israel’s recent retaliatory response.

The incoming Republican administration’s stance, however, is clear.

The two opposing views highlight the nature of Iranian-American relations, which have shifted between Democratic and Republican presidents.

In Donald Trump's first term in 2016, shortly after entering the White House, the Republican president withdrew from the nuclear agreement that Democratic President Barack Obama had crafted. 

Trump claimed the deal was flawed and would not prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, ballistic missile programs, or interference in neighboring countries.

Trump did not stop at withdrawing from the deal; he also imposed new sanctions on Iran to economically isolate it.

Tensions between the two countries escalated, reaching a peak when the U.S. assassinated Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in 2020.

However, despite the heightened tensions, the conflict remained limited, resulting in a calculated Iranian response on U.S. military bases.

In 2020, Trump lost the presidential election, and Democrats returned to the White House with Joe Biden.

Relations between Washington and Tehran remained tense, though efforts simultaneously sought to revive diplomacy by attempting to reinstate the Iranian nuclear deal to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

This diplomatic effort led to rounds of indirect negotiations between the two countries in Vienna and Oman. 

These rounds often failed to produce tangible results, mainly due to, according to some observers, Iran’s refusal to discuss its regional presence and ballistic missile program.

One exception was a prisoner exchange agreement achieved through indirect talks, which involved the release of American detainees in Iran in exchange for Iran’s frozen funds abroad. 

This occurred despite the imposition of new sanctions on Iran, some in response to its expanding nuclear program.

Ultimately, all eyes are on how the next U.S. administration will handle the Iranian nuclear issue, especially with several advisers to Donald Trump suggesting Washington is considering a new nuclear agreement.

Such an agreement could face severe challenges if Israel strikes Iran, potentially forcing the United States into a direct conflict. Alternatively, it could be a diplomatic agreement involving multiple countries in the region.