Economic strain: BDL reserves drop amid ongoing war

Report by Theresia Rahme, English Adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

The Banque du Liban (BDL) reserves, which previously stood at $1.7 billion above the baseline due to reduced local currency circulation and tighter control over the Lebanese lira, have experienced a significant decline. 

As of today, the reserves are reported to have fallen to $10.3 billion.

According to LBCI's sources, the decline is estimated to range between $300 million and $400 million. This drop is attributed to large withdrawals related to Circulars 158 and 166 and the payment of public sector salaries in October. 

The report comes in the wake of a Bloomberg article highlighting concerns over the shrinking reserves, particularly in light of Lebanon's $5 billion debt in unpaid Eurobonds. Bloomberg warned that the ongoing war could further deplete Lebanon's remaining reserves.

However, LBCI's sources indicated that the reserve decline may not persist into November despite the continued impact of doubling the withdrawal process outlined in the circulars above. 

The expected stabilization comes as dollars are beginning to flow back into BDL, following a near-total halt in market activity at the onset of the war.