International pressure mounts: South Lebanon's fate tied to US Middle East strategy and Israeli withdrawal

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi  

The situation in South Lebanon remains closely linked to broader Middle East developments and the strategic plans pushed by U.S. President Donald Trump in the region and beyond.  

These plans are expected to be a key topic of discussion during an upcoming summit in Saudi Arabia involving Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

The talks will cover the war in Ukraine, normalization efforts between Arab states and Israel, the future of Gaza and its population, the situation in Syria, and the issue of Israeli occupation of certain border areas in South Lebanon.  

Meanwhile, Lebanon remains firm in rejecting any extension of the Israeli military presence on its territory. 

Yet, Israel continues to insist on maintaining control over five border sites within Lebanese land.  

According to sources familiar with the matter, Lebanon is relying on diplomatic pressure to prevent Israeli presence from becoming permanent. The United States and France have been actively supporting Lebanon's stance, with French President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus playing key roles.  

While there has been no official confirmation of Ortagus' return to Beirut, sources suggest that she is expected to arrive around February 16 to deliver the U.S. position on Israel's proposed extension—either in person or through a statement from the White House.  

The same sources emphasize that the responsibility for enforcing Israel's withdrawal falls on Washington, particularly since the U.S. has pledged that the pullout will take place by February 18. They add that the withdrawal could be executed within 24 hours, coinciding with the deployment of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces.  

Israeli officials have reportedly proposed stationing American personnel at the five contested sites, similar to previous U.S. deployments in the Netzarim corridor in Gaza, to prevent Hezbollah from reclaiming these positions. 

However, this idea was met with resistance from members of the international ceasefire monitoring committee, particularly the French side. 

France, a key contributor to UNIFIL, argued that U.N. peacekeeping forces are already in place to handle such security responsibilities and suggested that the French contingent within UNIFIL could be deployed to those locations instead.