What’s on the table in Tuesday’s Cabinet session? Lebanon weighs disarmament timeline — the details

Report by Lara El Hachem, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

The countdown has begun for Tuesday’s Cabinet session, which will resume discussions on implementing the ministerial statement—specifically the section related to extending state authority over its territory using only its own forces.

The key question remains: What formula will the government adopt, and will it set a timeline for exclusive control over weapons?

The final version of the proposal has not yet been completed. The Lebanese Presidency is currently working on a draft that merges elements from the ministerial statement, the presidential oath of office, and the president’s Army Day speech. The draft is expected to be presented to both the prime minister and the parliament speaker.

Among the proposals being considered is a government statement reaffirming its commitment to exclusive control of weapons, with implementation details to be referred to the Higher Defense Council.

While the formula is still being developed, ministers affiliated with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement are not expected to boycott the session. They believe their participation is essential, given their central role in the issue. Their presence would allow them to register objections, reservations, or comments.

Hezbollah is expected to argue that setting a timeline for disarmament is not in Lebanon’s interest. The group believes such a move would increase external pressure on the country and that establishing a timeline without reciprocal steps from Israel would amount to political suicide.

The Tom Barrack proposal, which is on the session’s agenda, outlines a three-phase disarmament plan.

Last-minute consultations are expected to intensify. Hezbollah is relying on President Joseph Aoun, who reportedly showed flexibility during a recent meeting with MP Mohammad Raad and acknowledged the sensitivity of the situation, which requires careful handling.

Ahead of what is expected to be a tense session, Lebanese officials were surprised by reports that the Lebanon file may have been transferred from U.S. envoy Tom Barrack to Morgan Ortagus.

Although Lebanese officials have not officially confirmed the reports, some sources expressed concern about the relevance of discussing the U.S. envoy’s proposal in the Cabinet if Barrack is no longer overseeing the file. 

Other sources noted, however, that Ortagus never fully relinquished the Lebanon file.