Israel weighs multiple Lebanon escalation scenarios as it seeks regional control — the details

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Israel is reportedly considering several scenarios in which Lebanon could be on the verge of a second civil war or a major conflict between President Joseph Aoun and Hezbollah, potentially putting Aoun’s life at risk.

These scenarios were discussed by Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Paris with U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, during talks that also included Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani. The discussions focused on the Syrian file and ways to stabilize the entire northern front, covering both Syria and Lebanon.

On the Lebanese front, Tel Aviv insists on maintaining a prolonged presence in the positions it occupies and has so far delayed allowing residents in northern areas to return to their homes.

Among the scenarios being considered in Israel is the possibility of an internal Lebanese security incident escalating to the point of foreign intervention, including the deployment of international forces to Lebanon.

Some Israeli security officials are calling for a strategy aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s arsenal and reducing Iran’s influence in Lebanon. 

As Israel is determined to maintain a presence in Lebanon, it also seeks to remain in Syria.

Across Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza Strip, it has become clear that Israel is pursuing a deterrent capability that allows it to exercise security control over these areas, advancing plans for a “new Middle East” in which the Israeli state holds dominant security authority.