Israel’s Netanyahu keeps Lebanon strategy uncertain, sparking debate over ‘what is to come’

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained ambiguity over Israel’s intentions toward Lebanon after saying Thursday evening that the return of prisoner Saleh Abu Hussein was “just the beginning of what is to come.”

Close associates of Netanyahu interpreted “what is to come” as referring to steps that Lebanon is expected to take, under pressure from U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, to disarm Hezbollah. 

In exchange, Barrack seeks to secure an Israeli withdrawal from occupied positions, halt Israeli army attacks, and release Lebanese detainees captured during the war.

While some Israelis viewed Abu Hussein’s release as a confidence-building measure between Tel Aviv and Beirut, debate continues in Israel over how successful efforts to disarm Hezbollah might be.

Ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon involve the use of large quantities of explosives that shake northern towns near the border, keeping the region in a constant state of tension. The situation is compounded by Hezbollah’s insistence on retaining its arms.

Netanyahu’s vague message about “what is to come” toward Lebanon contrasts with his statements regarding Gaza and the prisoner exchange, as the war has entered a more severe and dangerous phase.

Between Lebanon and Gaza, Israelis view recent Iranian military maneuvers as a signal to prepare for a potential near-term conflict.