Lebanon’s showdown: Will the Lebanese army succeed in enforcing state control over arms?

Report by Nada Andraos, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

The Lebanese army is finalizing its plan to centralize weapons under state control and implement U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 across the country, ahead of presenting it to the cabinet at the end of the month.

According to LBCI sources, the plan will rely on military, financial, and timeline frameworks, supported by U.S. technical assistance and the backing of the ceasefire monitoring mechanism.

The army’s plan builds on the ceasefire agreement, which marked the start of an initial plan launched under Joseph Aoun, who was then commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces and is now president, focusing on the south of the Litani River. The next phase will extend across Lebanon.

The timeline for the army to collect weapons by the end of this year could be extended to better match conditions on the ground.

Financially, while the army and security forces await $1 billion annually over 10 years from international donors to strengthen equipment and personnel, U.S. support will continue at $150 million per year, alongside salary increases and an expansion of troops to 4,500 fully equipped personnel—or more, as implementation progresses.

On the ground, the plan calls for enhancing military capabilities on land, in the air, and at sea. The air force will be strengthened for reconnaissance and aerial surveillance missions. The navy will be upgraded to secure coasts and territorial waters. 

On land, the plan will involve organizational restructuring and advanced training for units deployed south of the Litani, along the borders, and internally, in preparation for expanding the roles of all units tasked with reconnaissance, surveillance, and security operations to other areas.

The plan is divided into three phases beyond the south of the Litani River: up to the Awali River, Greater Beirut, and the Bekaa. Each phase defines objectives and the arms to be collected, allowing for gradual and coherent implementation.

The army’s anticipated plan is expected to outline the operational and security requirements at a politically sensitive moment, though political backing and consensus are not guaranteed.

In other words, by the end of August, the cabinet could face a difficult crossroads if it approves the army’s weapons collection plan and insists on assigning the army to implement it on the ground, even without the approval of the Hezbollah-Amal Movement political duo.