Lebanon, a year after ceasefire: Unresolved disputes raise the risk of renewed conflict

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Since the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel on November 27, 2024 — which Hezbollah accepted through negotiations conducted at the time by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri — both the group and Tel Aviv have interpreted its terms according to their own understanding.

Hezbollah considers the ceasefire to apply only to areas south of the Litani River. It therefore rejects full disarmament and opposes dismantling its military or security structure. The group insists it is rebuilding its capabilities to confront Israel.

Although it has not fired a single shot since the agreement was signed, Hezbollah says the Lebanese state is responsible for implementing the terms of the deal.

Israel, for its part, viewed the agreement as an opportunity for residents of the north to return to their settlements and as a document permitting it to target Hezbollah to eliminate any threats. Israel has carried out daily assassinations and airstrikes, arguing that any Hezbollah movement constitutes a ceasefire violation, making its responses permissible.

Caught between the two sides, the Lebanese state — and the Lebanese people — are paying the price. Beirut has been unable to enforce its interpretation of the agreement on either party. 

That interpretation holds that Hezbollah must hand over its weapons and place decisions of war and peace in the hands of the state, while Israel must withdraw from occupied areas, release detainees, and halt violations, attacks, and assassinations. 

The agreement also calls for resolving disputes along the Blue Line and launching reconstruction efforts under a border arrangement that ensures lasting stability between the two countries.

Political forces opposed to Hezbollah see the agreement as a chance to end Hezbollah’s military and security role altogether, particularly since the accord clearly defines which entities are permitted to carry weapons in Lebanon.

A year has passed since the ceasefire. Instead of moving toward peace and stability, Lebanon now finds itself closer to another round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.