Cracks in the axis: How the region slid toward direct confrontation

Report by Wissam Nasrallah, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

At dawn on Friday, June 13, 2025, a series of massive explosions shook Iran. Israel launched an unprecedented attack deep into Iranian territory, targeting nuclear sites and assassinating high-ranking military officials. 

The escalation marked a dramatic turning point in a conflict that has been building for years.

The path to this moment can be traced back to January 2020, when the United States assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the powerful commander of Iran's Quds Force. Soleimani was widely regarded as the second most powerful man in Iran and the architect of its regional influence. 

Many expected a forceful Iranian retaliation. 

Instead, Tehran's response was largely symbolic—limited missile strikes on the U.S. Ain El-Asad base in Iraq, which resulted in no casualties. That moment marked the first significant crack in Iran's deterrence posture.

Subsequent years saw a series of significant blows to Iran. 
 
In late 2020, top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in the heart of Tehran in a sophisticated operation widely attributed to Israel. A string of further assassinations targeting figures in Iran's nuclear program followed.

After Hamas launched the Al-Aqsa Flood operation in October 2023, Hezbollah, Iran's most prominent ally, opened a support front for Gaza. In response, Israel struck southern Beirut in early 2024, killing senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri and six others. That strike shattered a deterrence formula Hezbollah had publicly upheld for years.

Israel continued its campaign, targeting second and then first-tier leaders in Hezbollah. Among them was senior commander Fouad Shokor, killed in Beirut. Hours later, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in his bedroom in central Tehran. 

Iran's response, delayed until after the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, was described by Tehran as "measured." Throughout, Israel continued its bombardment of Gaza, reducing large parts of the territory to ruins under Tehran's watch.

Iran's prolonged silence may have encouraged Israel to believe it could upend the regional rules of engagement. In June 2025, Israel escalated its strategy, launching strikes deep inside Iran in an apparent effort to resolve a decades-long standoff once and for all.

Why didn't Iran respond in kind to the scale of the attacks it faced? 

One explanation could be that Iran and the groups it supports were not yet prepared—either militarily or politically—for the full consequences of an all-out response.

Hezbollah's Nasrallah hinted at this in his first speech following the opening of the Gaza support front, saying, "Our battle has not reached the stage of a knockout victory. We still need time to be realistic. But we are winning on points."

That long-awaited "knockout blow" was a goal Tehran appeared to be pursuing through years of military buildup and strategic patience. Absorbing attacks seemed to be a deliberate tactic meant to preserve momentum for a decisive future moment.

However, many within Hezbollah reportedly believed that the October 2023 Hamas-led operation may have derailed that plan. While such views were not publicly stated, they existed beneath the surface.

Now, the Middle East stands on the brink of a new and unpredictable phase. Has the era of open confrontation finally begun?