Could ISIS fighters flee to Lebanon? Security agencies assess as Syria steps up operations

Report by Edmond Sassine, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Syria’s decision to join the international coalition against ISIS and the Syrian army’s launch of operations targeting the group’s remaining cells in several provinces—coinciding with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to Washington—are developments that Lebanese security agencies have been quick to assess.

The key question now is whether these operations could push ISIS members to flee to Lebanon.

Lebanese security sources downplay this possibility but do not rule it out entirely, noting that some ISIS elements might view parts of Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley or northern regions as potential safe havens from Syrian crackdowns—areas where local authorities have previously dismantled extremist cells.

However, the risk of ISIS members and their families crossing into Lebanon remains limited. The Lebanese army, its intelligence units, and other security agencies now have extensive experience and networks for identifying and tracking such individuals. 

Ongoing Lebanese-Syrian coordination, they said, would further strengthen efforts to prevent infiltration.

Experts on regional militant movements also believe Lebanon is not the preferred destination for fleeing ISIS fighters. Northern and eastern parts of Syria remain more secure for them, while Iraq continues to serve as a more likely refuge—assuming they can evade Syrian army operations.

As for Lebanese nationals who joined ISIS in recent years, sources say the last wave of recruitment occurred about two years ago. Around 120 Lebanese are believed to have joined the group, some of whom were killed, while dozens remain alive. 

Their return to Lebanon is considered unlikely, as their identities are well known to security services.

Overall, the repercussions of the anti-ISIS campaigns in Syria are not expected to pose a serious threat to Lebanon. Heightened vigilance from army intelligence and other agencies, strict border controls, and cooperation among municipalities and local communities in reporting suspicious activity are expected to keep potential risks to a minimum.