Israel-Lebanon situation: Israel sees large-scale conflict with Hezbollah as likely

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Israeli military and intelligence assessments now treat a major war with Lebanon as a likely eventuality, one that would penetrate well deep into Lebanese territory.

In that context, Israel has asked Washington for permission to continue precision strikes on what it describes as arms shipments to Hezbollah—actions Jerusalem says are necessary to blunt a direct threat to its national security and that it views as violations of the ceasefire.

An intelligence report reviewed by Israeli authorities alleges that Hezbollah moved hundreds of rockets from Syria into Lebanon, most of them short-range, as part of a broad effort to strengthen the group's strike capabilities and prepare for possible operations against Israel. The report and other military assessments say the group has been extracting lessons from the recent war and adapting its tactics.

Across northern Israel, from the Ramat David base to the international border, air traffic has been heavy and the army has increased troop deployments, reflecting heightened readiness. 

Israeli planners say that if large-scale hostilities break out, the fighting would demand a far broader and longer land campaign than recent operations in Gaza or Syria—with extensive use of armored columns and tanks, heavier air and ground fire support, and expanded logistical and force-protection systems for ground troops.

At the same time, Israeli planning assumes Hezbollah could pursue complex cross-border incursions on multiple axes intended to disperse and disorient Israeli forces. 

Jerusalem is also monitoring the group's reported efforts to enhance its unmanned aerial vehicle unit 127 and to field more anti-tank guided missiles aimed at nearby Israeli communities, developments that would complicate any ground advance and widen the geographic scope of combat.