Arab votes shake up Israel's politics as Eisenkot moves closer to power

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

On Sunday, when Israeli President Isaac Herzog announces whom he will task with forming the next government, following his decision Thursday evening to select Gadi Eisenkot, the defeat of the far-right Netanyahu-Smotrich-Ben-Gvir alliance will officially go down in history.

For the first time in Israel's history, the decisive votes have come from Palestinian citizens of Israel, who secured 19 seats in the Knesset. All 19 votes went toward supporting Eisenkot, tipping the balance in his favor and making Herzog's task easier.

So how will Arab support for Eisenkot translate into political action?

So far, the Joint List, which comprises left-wing and nationalist parties, is expected to support Eisenkot from outside the government. This means it will back him in the Knesset without joining his government, in keeping with its longstanding position of not participating in any Israeli government.

The Joint List will also serve as a blocking bloc, a term used in Israeli politics to describe a group capable of preventing government decisions that require a majority vote in the Knesset.

As for the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, it has yet to decide whether to join the government, although Abbas has expressed interest in doing so. Meanwhile, parties within Eisenkot's camp are working to prevent such a move.

In an attempt to block Arab participation in the government and preserve its exclusively Zionist character, Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman has reversed his veto on the participation of ultra-Orthodox parties in the government. The ultra-Orthodox, known as Haredim, oppose mandatory military service.

While the picture remains unclear, Eisenkot has begun informal consultations ahead of his official designation by the president. He is expected to launch formal talks Sunday following his appointment.

The task will not be easy, with several possible government-formation scenarios on the table.

One option is a majority government with 63 seats, formed in partnership with United Torah Judaism, which has now moved outside Netanyahu's camp, and receiving external support from the United Arab List, but not the Joint List.

Another possibility is a minority government with 48 seats, comprising only the members of Eisenkot's bloc and receiving external support from both Arab parliamentary blocs.

A third, less likely scenario at this stage is a national unity government, given Eisenkot's stated preference to keep Netanyahu out of the political picture.