Aftershock in the Middle East: Will Iran hit back at the US or hold fire?

Report by Edmond Sassine, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi    

Surrounded by American military bases in nine neighboring Arab countries—from Saudi Arabia to Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria—Iran has no shortage of nearby targets. 

Strategically, striking U.S. positions in the Gulf may appear easier than attacking Israel. Many bases lie just hundreds of kilometers from Iranian territory, well within range of its missile arsenal.

Yet, Iranian decision-making is not solely about missile capability. 

Experts told LBCI that Tehran is calculating the consequences. Directly targeting American military infrastructure, warships, or interests could shift the conflict from a single retaliatory blow into a prolonged war—one that Iran may struggle to sustain. 

For now, Iran appears to favor continuing its ballistic missile strikes on Israel following Sunday's U.S. operation. Notably, two waves of missiles have already hit Tel Aviv, including a Khaybar missile reportedly used for the first time, causing significant damage.

More aggressive actions—such as targeting U.S. bases or mining the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route—could isolate Iran diplomatically and economically, inviting an overwhelming American military response. 

According to experts, such moves would directly align with Israeli strategic interests and are unlikely to yield tactical gains beyond increasing maritime risk.

Some analysts draw comparisons to Iran's calibrated retaliation in January 2020 following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, when Iran fired missiles at Iraq's Ain El-Asad base housing U.S. troops. A similarly restrained approach is likely, despite the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warning that America's actions will provoke "responses beyond the aggressors' calculations."

The broader U.S. military presence in the region—estimated at around 40,000 troops, supported by warships and state-of-the-art technology—further tilts the balance against Iran in any open confrontation.

Still, Tehran holds other cards. It may rely on allied non-state actors, such as the Houthis in Yemen, who have already fired missiles at Israel, and potentially Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

Observers say Hezbollah remains cautious. The group has suffered losses in recent months, and Lebanon's internal consensus remains firmly opposed to being dragged into a new war. For now, the party appears unwilling to initiate or escalate a direct military engagement.