Beirut’s political landscape shifts as municipal elections near: What’s at stake?

Report by Lara El Hachem, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

During the height of the so-called "Political Harirism," former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri's phrase "We stopped counting" played a key role in solidifying the power-sharing agreement within Beirut’s Municipal Council, a 24-member body formed through broad consensus-based alliances.

Beirut has nearly 505,000 voters, including around 247,000 Sunnis (about half of the total), 170,000 Christians, and approximately 81,000 Shiites.

Therefore, the Sunni vote holds the "electoral key," although voter turnout did not exceed 20% in the last municipal elections in 2016.

Today, with new Sunni figures emerging in Beirut and the absence of Saad Hariri from the political scene, coupled with the appointment of a Beirut-based prime minister, a new political dynamic is forming. 

The equation has shifted, and there are concerns that the lack of a single Sunni leadership could lead to the dissolution—or even the elimination—of Christian representation.

Meanwhile, the new Sunni forces in Beirut do not seem eager to institutionalize the power-sharing arrangement in the law, though they assert their commitment to the principle. 

This is evident through the proposal by MPs Mark Daou and Waddah Sadek for a closed list and MP Nabil Badr’s efforts to secure the widest possible alliance with Islamic forces to safeguard the power-sharing system.

At this point, the alliance map remains unclear.

While the capital's municipal elections are likely to be the most significant political battle, there are growing concerns from mayors of villages in the southern border region about holding elections amid the fragile security situation. These concerns were raised to Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

The mayors have requested more time to prepare logistically for the elections, while the Shiite villages, in line with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's statement, are determined to hold the elections, even if it means proceeding "on the ground."

Less than a month before the municipal elections, which have been absent for nine years, it is becoming increasingly clear that the political aspect is overshadowing family-based politics. The battle is now one of political power, shaped by shifting balances.