Strike or bluff? Israel raises stakes ahead of US-Iran talks

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Israeli military officials and experts have ruled out the possibility that Tel Aviv will launch a military strike against Iran, but they say the local, regional, and U.S. context makes the coming days critical.

Following communication between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff—and ahead of talks in Washington involving Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Mossad head David Barnea—Israel began signaling its readiness to strike Iran. 

This coincided with measures taken by Washington concerning its diplomatic missions and citizens in the region.

The suggestion of an imminent strike has met skepticism. Some doubt the Israeli air force’s ability to effectively target Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment facilities, while others believe the threats are intended to pressure Tehran into reaching a deal.

Against this backdrop, an Israeli report warned that even if Tel Aviv takes the risk and carries out the operation, it may achieve tactical objectives. 

However, the outcome of the strike, its repercussions for Israel and the region, and its ability to support the broader strategic goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remain uncertain.

Adding to doubts is the inconsistency in Israeli assessments. Some now argue that a strike is necessary because Iran is accelerating its ballistic missile production and seeking nuclear weapons capability—despite Tel Aviv’s earlier claim, following its most recent strike on Iran, that it had succeeded in delaying Tehran’s missile development for years.

Attention now turns to the upcoming U.S.-Iran negotiations on Sunday, amid signs that the parties involved in the nuclear issue are working to make a military strike a last resort, given the potentially grave consequences for Israel and the region.