Iraq, Lebanon mirror gridlock amid Iranian influence: Will Baghdad face a fifth vacuum?

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Iraq and Lebanon share long-standing political similarities, with Iranian influence expanding in both countries over recent decades in various forms and gaining significant weight in political life.

Political disputes are nearly identical, particularly over the designation of a prime minister, the shape of the government, and the influential actors within it, processes that can take weeks or even months, with the goal of dividing shares within the government.

Even in local patronage systems and their benefits, there is similarity, as competing forces race to secure gains that allow them to benefit from the countries’ resources, which are more significant in Iraq than in Lebanon.

In Iraq, the value of oil exports alone exceeds $80 billion annually, and political competition centers on key ministries such as oil, defense, and interior, as well as military, security, and financial positions.

Today, Iraq is engaged in the process to select a prime minister amid complex disputes governing the Coordination Framework, an alliance that includes the main Shiite components in parliament and whose members are known to be close to Iran to varying degrees.

Three times this week, the framework attempted to agree on a candidate who would secure the approval of two-thirds of its members, but failed.

There has been talk that Iran's Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani tried to bridge differences within the framework, which has realized that bringing in a figure closely aligned with Tehran would deprive Iraq of U.S. support and could even expose it to sanctions. 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat three months ago to take such action if Nouri al-Maliki were named is seen as clear evidence.

Part of the disagreements centers on the candidate’s political affiliations and ties to Iran, the United States, and Gulf countries.

The greatest concern, if no agreement is reached on a figure to assume the post, is that Iraq could enter a state of “political vacuum.” This is a scenario Iraqis have experienced four times since 2010, either through a caretaker government or a complete vacancy in the premiership. Will this be the fifth time?