Ticking clocks and shrinking stockpiles: can Israel or Iran hold out longer?

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Nine days into the war, both Iran and Israel have begun to feel the strain on their military capabilities, with each side now forced to manage its weapons stockpiles more carefully.

While Israeli warplanes maintain clear air superiority and can continue striking Iranian targets, Israel’s stock of interceptor missiles is steadily shrinking. 

The Israeli military is reportedly firing these defensive missiles at a faster rate than they can be replenished, raising concerns within the defense establishment about whether the supply will run out before Iran exhausts its ballistic arsenal.

As a result, the Israeli army has begun rationing its use of interceptors, prioritizing the defense of densely populated areas and key strategic infrastructure.

Unless fresh U.S. support shipments arrive, Israeli reports indicate that Tel Aviv’s stock of interceptor missiles—especially those from the THAAD, Arrow, and Patriot systems—could last about 12 more days. That estimate could be extended if the pace of Iranian attacks slows.

As for Iran, there is no confirmed figure for its long-range ballistic missile arsenal—those capable of reaching more than 1,200 kilometers and striking Israeli territory. However, U.S. sources estimate the number to be between 2,000 and 2,500 missiles.

Israel claims to have destroyed one-third of that arsenal on the ground since the start of the war, while Iran has reportedly launched about 500 missiles toward Israel to date. 

According to U.S. experts, Iran could sustain strikes for up to 14 more days, though it has recently slowed its launch rate to conserve stockpiles. Producing new missiles takes time and requires key components, many of which are supplied by allied countries, particularly China. The most recent known shipment reportedly arrived in March. 

Israel has also targeted several Iranian ballistic missile production facilities.

In short, two military factors could determine the war’s duration: Israel’s reserve of interceptor missiles and Iran’s stock of long-range ballistic missiles. 

Much will also depend on the willingness and ability of each side’s allies to supply them with interceptor missiles on one hand and missile production components on the other.

This is now a war of attrition—and a test of which side can endure longer.